Editor’s Note: The complete paper “Taxation, Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products and Finance of Terrorism” by Nasser Saidi & Associates is attached here. Below is an excerpt.

This White Paper addresses two important issues relevant to imposing and increasing excise taxes on tobacco: (a) the need to avoid sudden, large tax hikes that would lead to an increase in illicit trade and (b) as a result provide financing to organised crime groups (OCGs) and terrorist organisations operating in or out of the Middle East region. The vastness of the illicit trade network is evident in the fact that trade in illicit (and untaxed) tobacco recently became the fourth-largest global tobacco business by volume, just behind British American Tobacco, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco International.